Members of the public are advised not to take part in the 901 Free Anwar Campaign in relation to the decision on Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s sodomy trial, scheduled for January 9. Another wave of political struggle is expected to approach and the result this time might determine the date of the next general election.
Anwar started a tour in the peninsula on January 3, a week before the trial verdict, to explain to the people that he is innocent. It reminds me of September 2, 1998. After being sacked by then Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Anwar knew that he would be arrested and started a non-stop ceramah tour. The Reformasi movement was then initiated. I can still remember that many reporters tried to trail his four-wheel drive car but failed as it was speeding too fast.
On September 20, Anwar planned to give a speech at Dataran Merdeka in Kuala Lumpur but moved to Masjid Negara after being thwarted. About 50,000 attended the rally and during a press conference at his house in Bukit Damansara that evening, he was arrested by policemen who broke into his house. Thousands of emotional supporters trailed the police patrol cars to the federal police headquarters in Bukit Aman and shouted the slogan “Reformasi”.
Would the history repeat itself 13 years later? How did the then 50,000 attendees instil political awareness into their children over all these years? How did the political changes over the past 13 years affect those who are born in the 1980s and 1990s?
Today’s political situation is greatly different from that of the past. Authoritarian politics is gone forever. From the July 9 rally, the proposed Peaceful Assembly Bill, amendment to section 15 of the Universities and University Colleges Act (UUCA), student activist Adam Adli Abdul Halim’s banner-lowering issue to the peaceful demonstration at Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris (UPSI), we can see that there is an anti-incumbent mood among young people nowadays. If the authorities fail to respond to their demands with relaxation and liberalisation, I am afraid that Anwar’s trial verdict might become a tipping point.
Many people are not supporting Anwar, just as Bar Council president Lim Chee Wee said, they are not anti-government, but just pro-justice and the rule of law. If the BN pushes more people towards the alternative coalition, it would be its own mistake.
Undeniably, Anwar is Pakatan Rakyat’s leader and if he is being put behind bars, it might result in a cleavage between PAS and the DAP, reducing the BN’s pressure. Moreover, Anwar is a natural orator, and the political tsunami in 2008 might not be set off without his ceramah tour in the peninsula before the general election.
Today, however, the Pakatan Rakyat coalition is formed, organised and structured. Even if Anwar is away, the three component parties of the Pakatan Rakyat will still continue their preparation for the next general election. If Anwar wins sympathy from the public, it will to the disadvantage of BN.
The coming next month might be crucial and improper handling could trigger a massive rebound. To eliminate political impact, the next general election might not be held in March. Another consideration is how should Umno leaders properly address the National Feedlot Corporation (NFC) issue. That is why rumours about a Cabinet reshuffle to remove some ministers are spread.
A variety of issues have formed an enormous pressure on BN and if another mass rally is held, the good news arranged by BN will be diluted. Could the next general election still be held in March then?
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